Global Outlook

About this Report: Global economic activity has experienced a major downshift in 2022, and headwinds will continue into 2023. In our base case, we anticipate just 2.1% real global GDP growth in 2022 and 1.6% growth in 2023, a rate consistent with a mild global recession. Cost pressures will persist despite weakening demand, as many drivers of inflation appear entrenched. Although the outlook is unequivocally negative, unknowns and uncertainties around China’s Zero-COVID strategy, Europe’s energy supply, and Federal Reserve policy continue to dominate. 2023 is expected to see further depreciation across a range of currencies, a global manufacturing downturn, and easing prices for some inputs and commodities. Weak or negative growth along with high inflation is a recipe for social unrest, and companies should be attuned to the potential for political surprises across markets of operation. A challenging environment nonetheless offers opportunities to pursue innovations and reorient strate